If the transatlantic partnership is to be sustainable and fit for the future, European defense capabilities must be decisively strengthened. Among the general population, politicians, and experts in the United States, China is increasingly viewed as the foremost threat to security and prosperity. Given the rising tensions in the Indo-Pacific, transferring additional military resources—particularly air and naval forces—from Europe to this region seems unavoidable in the medium term.
With regard to NATO, the key difference between a Harris and a Trump-led administration will likely be the pace and extent of U.S. defense resource withdrawal from Europe. While a Trump-led administration may pursue a swift withdrawal, a Harris election victory could result in a more gradual drawdown, allowing European nations time to strengthen their defense strategies.
In light of the volatile security environment and shifting U.S. priorities, Europeans must take greater responsibility for the defense of their own continent. This is essential for ensuring that NATO remains a successful defense alliance in the future. However, this debate should not center on Donald Trump or Kamala Harris, but rather on enhancing military capabilities to deter and defend against threats to alliance territory.
Russia is already conducting a hybrid war against NATO members through sabotage, espionage, cyberattacks, and disinformation. Militarily, it poses a significant threat to European NATO partners. In view of the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine and potential further Russian expansionist ambitions, it is in Europe's best interest to prepare for a possible partial withdrawal of US troops. Such preparations must occur in close coordination with the U.S. and within NATO frameworks.
Military readiness means creating resilience, deterrence, and defense capability. Long-term defense spending in Europe should exceed the proposed two percent of gross domestic product and be permanently integrated into national budgets.
In Germany, while the Zeitenwende has been proclaimed, political and financial efforts – beyond the special funds – have not been sufficient. In order to build up sustainable capacities, the industry requires planning security, which the current budget, with minimal increases in defense spending, fails to provide. Commitments made to NATO partners must be supported with adequate financial, personnel, structural, and material resources. This requires progress in the debate on compulsory military service and the development of a new security culture within society. Achieving this will only be possible if the threat landscape and the urgency for a strategic turnaround are communicated clearly and consistently.
In addition to strengthening defense capabilities in Germany and Europe, it is essential to enhance cooperation with partners in the Indo-Pacific. This approach not only fosters interoperability and expertise among Germany and other NATO allies but also demonstrates to the US the commitment to contribute to security beyond the defense of the European alliance area.
At the same time, it is crucial to emphasize the U.S. strategic interest in the transatlantic defense alliance and in maintaining a stable Europe. Whoever governs from the White House from January 20, 2025, must consider the implications of scaling back support for Ukraine and NATO involvement, as this would send a signal to China. If Russia's war of aggression is successful, China is likely to take note and adjust its own strategic calculations accordingly.
