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Monitor Election and Social Research

Election analysis of the parliamentary elections in Hamburg on 2 March 2025

Report on the preliminary final result, the main determinants as well as voter migration and social structure.

Compared to the Bundestag elections, there are considerable differences in the performance of the parties. Our election analysis provides explanations for these results. Based on the election day surveys and polls in the run-up to the election, the significance of the assessments of top candidates, party competences and political issues for the election result is explained.

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One week after the early federal elections, Hamburg is electing its parliament. The broad lines of the national political climate are also evident in Hamburg. Nevertheless, there are considerable differences in the performance of the parties, reflecting the attitudes that have been typical of the city for decades. This is also due to the fact that the majority of eligible voters in Hamburg consider state politics to be more important for their voting decision than federal politics.

As in the Bundestag election, supporters of the parties differ considerably in the issues they consider to be particularly important. The fragmentation of supporters is reflected in heterogeneous perceptions of problems and different profiles of concerns. Overall, the different individual issue preferences do not result in an issue that exists for all Hamburg residents. A mixed picture emerges in the attribution of competences. Overall, the CDU can benefit from greater attributions of competence compared to 2020. It became the second strongest party and was able to significantly improve its result compared to the last parliamentary elections.

The election analysis for the parliamentary elections in Hamburg can be found here.

Please note, to date the study is only available in German.

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Contact

Dr. Viola Neu

Dr

Deputy Head of Division Analysis and Consulting,
Head of Department Electoral and Social Research

Viola.Neu@kas.de +49 30 26996-3506
Contact

Dr. Jochen Roose

Dr

Electoral and Social Research

jochen.roose@kas.de +49 30 26996-3798

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About this series

The publications of the Election and Social Research Monitor are part of our Monitor publication series. The Monitor series deals with one main topic at a time from the perspective of KAS experts and places it in the political and social context on the basis of a few key points.