“Election” in Belarus

The result of the “presidential election” in Belarus on January 26th, with 86.82 percent for the 70-year-old Lukashenko, who has been in power for 30 years, and 8.83 percent for the four “alternative” candidates, is completely fictitious. Experts assume that Lukashenko might realistically achieve 40-50 percent of the vote due to the country's hopeless situation in Russia's stranglehold and the lack of alternatives. However, this cannot be verified. OSCE observers were not allowed to attend the “election,” and candidates from opposition parties or independent civilian election observers were not even given a chance to stand. The “election” should actually have taken place in July but was brought forward to January 26th during a visit by Lukashenko to Russia in October last year. The active phase of the election campaign thus fell in the coldest month of the year, with many public holidays, which reduced the likelihood of street protests. The slowdown in economic growth by mid-2025 would also have had a more significant impact on the population's prosperity. In the event of peace negotiations in Ukraine after Donald Trump’s inauguration, Lukashenko wanted to legitimize himself early on with a renewed mandate as the real incumbent to participate in these negotiations. Since the protests against the election fraud in 2020 were brutally suppressed, Belarus has been on the path to becoming a totalitarian state, with close ties to Russia and isolated from the West by extensive sanctions.