The Taliban takeover in Afghanistan and the concurrent rise of Salafi Jihadism has not yet led to a new terrorist threat against the USA and its NATO allies. The impact on Islamist militancy in other regions such as Southeast Asia, the Middle East and North Africa has as yet been limited. However, Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) and other transnational terrorist organisations residing in Afghanistan are waging a localised Jihad with a focus on the “near enemy”, thriving on the exploitation of local grievances. In recent months the Taliban leadership has been at pains to show the international community and the neighbouring countries that it has a grip on the dozens of militant groups in the country, some of which are close to Al-Qaeda. The crucial question is whether the Taliban will be able and willing to deliver on the counterterrorism guarantee they gave in the Doha Agreement of February 2020, in which they promised not to allow terrorist organisations to plan or conduct terrorist activities from Afghan territory against the United States and its allies.
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